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The Trump plan can't be successful

Across South-East Asia, it's a familiar story.

Countries with relatively low wages courted foreign investment over the past two decades to develop their economies, following a playbook first perfected in Japan, Taiwan, Korea and later China.

Big brands — many American — built factories, supply chains and offered jobs.

In return, workers in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and elsewhere made everything from apparel to footwear, from electronics to machinery, and even cars.

They sold them to Americans, Australians and consumers in other developed markets at prices far lower than what they would cost if produced domestically.

What seemed like a "win-win" to many in Vietnam is viewed very differently by the White House.

Mr Trump says he wants to return manufacturing jobs to the US in a bid to make imports to America more expensive, and force the consumer to buy local.

It's a goal few in Vietnam believe is achievable.

"In my opinion, the Trump plan can't be successful to bring manufacturing back to the US," said Ho Chi Minh-based economist Huynh Thanh Dien.

"Tariffs are just one factor in the bigger picture. There's also suitable infrastructure and the cost and supply of labour," he said.

He argues that even at the minimum federal wage, US workers still cost more than three times as much as Vietnamese workers.

Dr Huynh believes the tariff threats and the 90-day negotiating window show Mr Trump doesn't intend to follow through on such high duties, but is trying to force other countries to lower their trade barriers to US goods.

"The most likely outcome is that Vietnam would lower tariffs on American goods and products where the US has an advantage, like technology, machinery and aircraft," he said.

"And the US might put lower tariffs on products where Vietnam has an advantage, like garments."